![]() ![]() By analyzing trip characteristics and powertrain needs, we were then able to map the flow of trucks by ICE, BEV, or FCEV and thus plot out the optimal state-by-state distribution of refueling or charging stations required to keep each running. McKinsey analyzed today’s freight traffic in the United States and projected how it may change in the decades ahead. Laying this groundwork could instill confidence in fleet operators and truck original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to make the ZEV transition happen at pace and demonstrate the public sector’s commitment to it, too. This article examines how the most critical freight journeys can be used to map a minimum viable infrastructure network to support the ZE truck transition, outlining what the network needs to look like in 2050. What comes first-the ZE trucks or the refueling and charging stations that support them? Battery electric and fuel cell trucks need a minimum charging and refueling network to operate, but is it reasonable to invest heavily in infrastructure without a current demand to sustain (or even use) it? Thus, we are faced with a chicken-and-egg problem. The opportunity for the freight truck sector to decarbonize now, and the ensuing impact on the economy and emissions, is enormous however, a mass rollout of ZE trucks would require appropriate infrastructure to support commercial freight journeys, much like ICE vehicles need gas stations along their routes. Given the transport sector’s significant GHG emissions, a switch to ZE trucks could rev up the country’s drive to be cleaner and greener, with a better overall cost of ownership to fleet operators. 6 McKinsey Center of Future Mobility Emissions Model, January 2023. This shift could result in a roughly 20 percent reduction of GHG truck emissions by 2035 and more than 75 percent by 2050. ![]() Thus, we expect the share of ZE trucks in operation to grow from less than 1 percent today to more than 75 percent in 2050 for all medium- and heavy-duty trucks. signs global commitment to 100 percent zero-emission trucks, buses at COP27,” Environmental Defense Fund, November 18, 2022. In November 2022, the United States committed that ZE truck sales nationwide would reach 100 percent in 2040. 4 The requirement to transition to ZE trucks may increase in importance if widespread adoption of commercialized autonomous technology furthers the cost-efficiency of autonomous vehicles (AVs), driving significant increases in the number of miles driven by AV trucks, leading to even higher emissions than currently projected. Unlike their ICE counterparts, zero-emission (ZE) trucks, such as battery electric vehicles (BEV) or fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) powered by hydrogen, do not produce direct tailpipe emissions. The United States faces a transition point where it must move toward renewable energy and zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). 3 “Freight analysis framework,” United States Department of Transportation-Federal Highway Administration, February 1, 2023. 2 “Smog, soot, and other air pollution from transportation,” United States Environmental Protection Agency, January 4, 2023.Īs truck transport continues to grow-with about 65 percent of freight tonnage expected to be shipped by truck in 2050-emissions grow as well. This legion of vehicles generates more than 25 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) from the transportation sector, including carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxides, pollutants that threaten the population’s respiratory and cardiovascular health. 1 IHS Automotive, AutoInsight, May 2022 EV-volumes, February 2022 McKinsey Center of Future Mobility Electrification Model, June 2022. Around seven million medium- and heavy-duty freight trucks circulate the United States today-and almost all are powered by traditional internal combustion engines (ICEs).
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